William Jaeger, Department of Applied Economics, OSU -- October 8, 2014 --
Abstract:
To predict the when, where, and how of future water scarcity in the
Willamette Basin we have developed a model that integrates natural
system components of water supply with the human system components of
water demand. Constructing an economic model for the
human side of this system presents a number of challenges. Some of these
are different from and others are similar to the challenges faced by
those modeling the biophysical system components.
This seminar will describe some of those challenges, and explain how we
have tried to address them. We’ll describe the models we have
constructed for agricultural water use and urban water use. These two
models have empirical and theoretical underpinnings,
and they have strong similarities as well as important differences. In
both cases, the models represent powerful tools for addressing questions
about future water scarcity: first, they provide a basis for predicting
how the demand for water will grow in the
future as human and natural systems change; second, these same models
represent a way to quantifying the impact of water availability on
social values in terms of the costs or benefits of changing water
scarcity, as well as the costs and benefits of policy
actions aimed at mitigating water scarcity.
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