Presented by: Dr. David Turner, OSU Forest Ecosystems and Society
November 5, 2014, Kidder Hall, OSU 
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Abstract: As the potential magnitude of anthropogenically-driven climate change becomes clearer, it is increasingly desirable to anticipate impacts of projected climate change on forest ecosystems and forest landscapes. Notable impacts of climate change on forests will include alteration of the disturbance regime, changes in tree species composition, and shifts in the geographic distribution of vegetation types. These potential impacts have been studied using climate change scenarios and a variety of empirical or process-based modeling approaches, but projections of climate change impacts have generally not included the role of land use. For the Willamette Water 2100 Project, we have applied an agent-based landscape simulation model (Envision) to assess potential climate change impacts in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). Envision accounts for harvesting, fire, and land use change. To incorporate climate change impacts, we have integrated it with results from a dynamic global vegetation model (MC2), driven by climate scenarios developed for the 5th IPCC report. Our goal is to evaluate the sensitivity of forest area, biogeography, rates of fire, rates of harvest, and forest age class distribution to three climate change scenarios. The related influences on basin-wide evapotranspiration are also being simulated and are of interest in evaluating the future WRB water budget.